Ten years ago, India conducted nuclear tests in defiance of international opposition from a world that fears the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It was India's assertion that it had become a de facto nuclear power. Now the United States has decided that India's use of nuclear power for peaceful purposes makes it another story altogether. It has agreed to move forward with a Congressional vote on a deal to allow India to obtain nuclear power generating technology and nuclear fuel from the United States.
India, with its rapidly expanding economy, faces a serious shortage of electric power, which it hopes to alleviate through nuclear power plants. It reached a basic nuclear power generation agreement with the United States in 2006.
For the United States, the deal provides more nuclear business opportunities. At the same time, it apparently wants to attract India, a major regional power, as an ally for political and economic reasons.
However, little progress had been made in the two years since the basic agreement was reached because of strong opposition from factions in India's ruling coalition, including small anti-American political parties.
To break the deadlock, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took the drastic step of reshuffling the coalition, surviving a noconfidence vote this week. He apparently hopes to expedite the accord process and seal the deal before U.S. President George W. Bush's term expires in six months.
While President George W. Bush has signed into law new legislation passed by Congress to enable the controversial U.S.-India nuclear cooperation deal, the agreement has come under flak in India's parliament, and a massive confrontation has broken out between its supporters and opponents.
The supporters say the deal offers India the best chance to get its nuclear weapons status accepted and legitimized by the great powers even if it compromises India's sovereignty. According to them, the deal also holds the key to India's long-term energy security.
For 25 years India endured its exclusion for not signing the NPT and was barred from any civilian use nuclear technology and materials. Later US politicians, to placate Pakistan, even blamed India for starting a nuclear arms race. In short, India was ignored. Although China was no better economically then, yet it was welcomed as one of the World powers.
Political Benefits to US
With a few strokes of pen, President Bush eliminated a major Cold War irritant from the scene. India is not politically and diplomatically aligned with US as Europe is, but India as a strategic partner in ensuring safety of sea-lanes of the Indian Ocean is very valuable. At the moment as long as US stays in Iraq and Afghanistan, the world will perceive US as a big bully. A major regional power, with a different outlook than the European and the US is needed to cool the tempers off. India has to step in to prevent further sliding of the Middle East into anarchy.
What does India get out of the Deal?
Benefits to India are immense with this deal. First and foremost, is the de-facto recognition of India as a nuclear power? It is not clearly stated in the deal, but it�s an implicit understanding. India missed this opportunity in 1970-78. It is unlikely that this opportunity is to be missed again. Second, is future recognition of India as a permanent UN Security Council member? India has tried this in last three years. It has not succeeded. It is unlikely to succeed in next 10 years. But with a Trillion and a half dollar economy (8% growth over ten years), India will make this grade. When UN reforming movement gains strength in the future, India will be right there and waiting for this opportunity.
Economic benefits to India
There is an urgent need in India for capital to build its infrastructure and manufacturing base. And there is only one source to get it i.e. US & Europe. US and Europe at this moment are content with sending capital to China to supply them with consumer goods. The former very cleverly had avoided exporting manufacturing technology to supply high priced, high technology capital goods to China. This component together with auto-parts, pharmaceuticals and computer hardware could herald India into big leagues in ten years and beyond. Commercial Aircraft manufacture, ship building, factories to make giant power plants, steel making plants, mining & drilling hardware, petroleum & petrochemical plant building facilities could be ultimately shared with India. The latter within ten years will have a workforce sufficiently skilled to undertake all the foregoing. It will be beneficial to US. Labor costs in India, will always stay a third of US, and European costs. That will make India an ideal candidate for this technology transfer.
Opportunity of the KPO (Knowledge Process Off-shoring) is knocking at India�s door. Indian graduates of Science and Engineering will play a major role in this expansion. In about 5 years KPO Off-shoring will grow immensely. India stands to benefit most from it. Thanks to the edge, Indian science & technology graduates have established.
US Congress and its Support
The support of US Congress is crucial to the deal. This is a major headache, Bush Administration have to deal with. Currently, US Nuclear Lobby Group has the ear of the US Congress. The latter has become hostage to its past fallacies. They enacted bad laws in the past and are having difficulty modifying them. Now it is for the US Congress to redeem itself by changing the bad laws.
Conclusion
Thanks to diplomatic and political skills of President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, we have a deal which could lift India into the Trillion-dollar club, faster. They both have worked hard. Ten years from now when electricity supply situation in India�s households, industry and farms is significantly better, we have to thank them both.
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